Economic Update – The Challenges for UK Investors

Key considerations for investors:

• Interest Rates have been so low for so long now although the US Federal Reserve has made the first move by raising rates in December 2016. When will be the next increase? Whilst it is intimated that the UK is someway off the US rises, it could be sooner if the UK economy continues to strengthen.
• The Bank of England is considering if an increase in interest rates will strengthen the pound which will make it even more difficult for manufacturing and export sectors to contribute towards our economic growth. A recovery driven by UK consumers is good, but a more balanced recovery will be better in the longer term.
• Consumer Spending in the UK is robust and wages continue to grow (growing at 3.5% in the private sector) as the labour market tightens as unemployment is down to 5.3% (Dec 2015). The ‘living wage’ will have an impact from 2016 as inflation remains low. Consequently the UK Economy continues to perform well given the tough global conditions.
• Oil Prices have fallen by more than 65% in the last 18 months. They could well stay low for some time and therefore oil producers will struggle as their cash flows will be affected. There are some benefits, most notably in the travel Industry where these lower prices are either passed onto the consumers or benefit the bottom lines of the travel companies.
• Emerging Markets have been slowing down and the focus of growth is switching from Infrastructure to consumption, which is particularly the case in China. An increasing interest in travel in Emerging Markets is a by-product of rising wealth and with low oil prices should benefit the travel companies.
• Lower oil prices are also likely to lead to a reduction in surpluses of oil exporting countries. This reversal in global savings could put even more upward pressure on global interest rates.
• EU Referendum. It is difficult to predict the timing or the outcome and it does create some uncertainty and the effect on Sterling. Markets will prefer the certainty of ‘status quo’ and not leaving the EU, but time will reveal the full effect of the proposed referendum.

Financial Market Outlook: 

• Developments in China and a collapsing oil price appear to be the cause of a turbulent start to 2016 in financial markets. However, it is expected that Equity markets will show signs of more stability as investors acclimatize to the current economic issues. Notwithstanding this volatility will persist for some time.

Our Approach:

• As volatility continues, active management is important – Investors must proceed with caution. Equities aren’t the only asset to consider for long term investment and generally volatility can be partially mitigated by diversifying investments across a broad range of asset classes that include equities, commercial property, fixed interest securities (bonds) and cash to spread risk further.
• For medium to long term investors it is definitely the time to hold one’s nerve and as we have seen in the past ‘patience will be rewarded’.
• Our focus as always is on fund managers that can find and invest into quality companies. Whilst understandably the short-term noise from China will have some impact on short term valuations, over the long term, this approach works well in delivering efficiency and diversity within portfolios.
• We continue to assess the quality of any investment opportunities which come about as the result of our investment process and strict fund selection criteria. A long-term outlook when investing is clearly desirable, as short-term expectations can turn out to be unrealistic where events cannot be anticipated.
• We will always look to ensure that our clients have a portfolio that reflects their requirements (attitude to risk and timeframe for investment) whilst taking into account what the impact the current stage in the economic recovery has on their exposure to various assets.

For clarification of any points discussed above and any future independent advice regarding your own financial planning, please do contact us on 01626 833225 or email [email protected]

Important Information
The views and opinions contained herein are those of Loughtons Independent Financial Advisers and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other economic communications, strategies or funds.

This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Loughtons Independent Financial Advisers does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Loughtons Independent Financial Advisers has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system.

Loughtons Independent Financial Advisers is a trading name of JPRS (South West) Limited. JPRS (South West) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.